Sunday, August 31, 2008

Visualizing data

Published: August 30, 2008

Many eyes website

I haven't had time to look at this site, but I plan to. If anyone has time to review it, please post here. I wonder if it has ideas that will be useful in visualizing data.


Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Evidence based forecasting?

Derailing the Boondoggle

"A Danish professor promotes a cure for billion-dollar cost overruns in government megaprojects: Use past boondoggles as a baseline."

The problem is optimistic bias and organizational incentives to under forecast. The solution proposed by Tversky, Kahneman, and Lovallo is "reference-class forecasting." Simply use past experience. This looks like a correspondence solution to a coherence problem. Right? Or is optimism bias really a correspondence issue?

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Expert hot tubbing?

Published: August 12, 2008
Unlike in American courts, in most of the rest of the world expert witnesses are selected by judges and are meant to be neutral.

"In most of the rest of the world, expert witnesses are selected by judges and are meant to be neutral and independent. Many foreign lawyers have long questioned the American practice of allowing the parties to present testimony from experts they have chosen and paid.

The European judge who visits the United States experiences “something bordering on disbelief when he discovers that we extend the sphere of partisan control to the selection and preparation of experts,” John H. Langbein, a law professor at Yale, wrote in a classic article in The University of Chicago Law Review more than 20 years ago. "

"Dr. Frank Gersh, the defense expert in the case, did not respond to a request for comment. But Dr. Leonard Welsh, the psychologist who testified for the state, said he sometimes found his work compromising."

“After you come out of court,” Dr. Welsh said, “you feel like you need a shower. They’re asking you to be certain of things you can’t be certain of.”

"He might have preferred a new way of hearing expert testimony that Australian lawyers call hot tubbing."

"In that procedure, also called concurrent evidence, experts are still chosen by the parties, but they testify together at trial — discussing the case, asking each other questions, responding to inquiries from the judge and the lawyers, finding common ground and sharpening the open issues. In the Wilkins case, by contrast, the two experts “did not exchange information,” the Court of Appeals for Iowa noted in its decision last year."


Friday, August 8, 2008

Prospect theory in court

Study Finds Settling Is Better Than Going to Trial
By JONATHAN D. GLATER, New York Times

Published: August 7, 2008

From the article

The findings are consistent with research on human behavior and responses to risk, said Martin A. Asher, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author. For example, psychologists have found that people are more averse to taking a risk when they are expecting to gain something, and more willing to take a risk when they have something to lose.

“If you approach a class of students and say, I’ll either write you a check for $200, or we can flip a coin and I will pay you nothing or $500,” most students will take the $200 rather than risk getting nothing, Mr. Asher said.

But reverse the situation, so that students have to write the check, and they will choose to flip the coin, risking a bigger loss because they hope to pay nothing at all, he continued. “They’ll take the gamble.”