Evidence based forecasting?

Derailing the Boondoggle

"A Danish professor promotes a cure for billion-dollar cost overruns in government megaprojects: Use past boondoggles as a baseline."

The problem is optimistic bias and organizational incentives to under forecast. The solution proposed by Tversky, Kahneman, and Lovallo is "reference-class forecasting." Simply use past experience. This looks like a correspondence solution to a coherence problem. Right? Or is optimism bias really a correspondence issue?